What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios

From regime change to retaliation, the BBC's Frank Gardner outlines possible outcomes of US strikes on Iran.

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While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not.

So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?

US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij unit - a paramilitary force under the control of the IRGC - ballistic missile launch and storage sites as well as Iran's nuclear programme.

An already weakened regime is toppled, transitioning eventually to a genuine democracy where Iran can rejoin the rest of the world.

This is a highly optimistic scenario. Western military intervention in both Iraq and Libya did not bring a smooth transition to democracy. Although it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed.

Syria, which conducted its own revolution, overthrowing President Bashar Al-Assad without Western military support in 2024, has so far fared better.

This could broadly be called the "Venezuelan model" whereby swift, powerful US action leaves the regime intact but with its policies moderated.

In Iran's case, this would mean the Islamic Republic survived, which won't satisfy large numbers of Iranians, but is forced to curtail its support for violent militias across the Middle East, cease or curtail its domestic nuclear and ballistic missile programmes as well as easing up on its suppression of protests.

Again, this is at the more unlikely end of the scale.

The Islamic Republic leadership has remained defiant and resistant to change for 47 years. It appears incapable of changing course now.

Many think this is the most likely possible outcome.

While the regime is clearly unpopular with many, and each successive wave of protests over the years weakens it further, there remains a huge and pervasive security deep state with a vested interest in the status quo.

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Source: BBC

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